Tuesday, October 14, 2008


I'm betting that the tremendous stock market gains of the past couple of days do not mark the bottom of this bear market, and that the current rally will turn into a “bear trap” for those who buy stocks and don't get out quickly.

I was shocked to read in interviews with several investment "experts" that they are as heavily into the market as ever (which means they must have lost 40% of their stake already), and are buying more now -- because stocks are "cheap." Well, $20 a share compared to $60 is cheap, but so will $8 a share be in comparison with $20.

As the market cliché goes, you can't turn an ocean liner around on a dime. Bear market rallies have a tendency to be swift and strong, but not to have staying power. I'm betting that the current hoorah of relief doesn't carry the Dow Jones Industrials up much past 11,000, if that. Then we shall see.

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